Is It Too Late to Buy Oil Stocks? Here's What the Options Market Says Happens Next

Oil spiked 7% today. WTI crude blew through $75 a barrel. Brent nearly touched $80. And every retail investor in America is asking the same question: is it too late to buy oil stocks ? Here’s my answer, after 28 years trading options — including years as a market maker on the CBOE floor: stop asking pundits. The options market already voted, with real money. And I’m going to show you exactly how to read the ballot. Why Are Oil Prices Surging Today? Quick recap of the news, because it matters: President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over after three tankers were attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. struck Iran overnight, with threats of more strikes and a renewed naval blockade to come. The Treasury Department revoked the waiver that had allowed Iran to sell its crude. And the Strait — the chokepoint that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil — is once again effectively closed to most shipping. That’s the headline story. Now here’s the part the headlines can’t tell you: what the smart money expects to happen next . The Free CVOL Chart That Answers ’What Comes Next’ for Oil The CME Group publishes a free tool called CVOL — think of it as the VIX, but for oil (and gold , and silver , and everything else that trades as a future). It’s a speedometer built from real option prices: one number that tells you how BIG a move traders are paying for. You don’t trade futures? Doesn’t matter. Crude oil options are where the world’s biggest energy traders — producers, refiners, hedge funds — place their real bets. When oil moves, XLE , USO, Exxon and Chevron move with it. This is the X-ray of the market that drives your oil stocks. Here’s what that X-ray showed today: Crude oil’s skew ripped higher today. Skew tells you which direction the money leans. When upside calls cost more...