Gold likely finishes 2026 near $4,000/oz, silver between $55-60/oz – StoneX Q3 Outlook

Gold’s price trajectory remains dependent on a resolution of the Iran conflict, with the yellow metal likely to finish the year close to the current $4,000 level, while silver will continue to take its cues from the gold price as it trades between $55 and $60 per ounce, according to the new StoneX Quarterly Commodities Outlook. “We concluded our previous outlook saying that we expected gold to be below USD 4,000 by year-end,” wrote Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis for EMEA & Asia at StoneX in the firm’s Q3 Outlook. “Well, that came more quickly than we were expecting and we dipped below USD 4,000 in late June, as the market has largely stood back from any fresh investment.” O'Connell said much of gold’s recent price weakness is due to continued uncertainty over the outlook surrounding the war with Iran. “This has combined latterly with declining equities with the S&P falling almost 5% in one week in early June (gold is a key mitigator of risk and when there is marked weakness in the equities, gold is frequently sold in order to raise cash against potential margin calls),” she noted. “It has thus been arguable that gold's historic inflation hedging role has taken a back seat to risk mitigation.” Addressing the recent ascension of Kevin Warsh to the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, O'Connell said that despite Trump’s clear preference for lower rates, the new-look Fed appears ready to hold the line on inflation. “For now it certainly looks as if Warsh will continue to be his own man (but do bear in mind also that there is a committee of 12 here; this is not a kingdom),” she wrote. “Mr. Warsh has taken over with a resilient United States economy and a comparatively stable labour force, and although he has not laid out any specific target, part of his philosophy is to reduce Fed statements and he certainly doesn't like the dot plot very much so that may well bite the dust soon.” StoneX believes gold is very much looking...