Full Truck Alliance: Upgrade To Buy As Valuation Narrative Reaches An Inflection Point

Full Truck Alliance upgraded to BUY with an $11–$13/share target, implying 30–50% upside on 13x–15x forward P/E.

YMM’s platform cleanup and governance reforms have improved business sustainability, with negative sentiment largely priced in after consensus revenue downgrades.

Q1 saw accelerating fulfilled orders (+14.3% y/y), rising shipper MAUs (+12.7% y/y), and a healthier revenue mix favoring high-margin transaction services.

Valuation is compelling at a 3-year low, supported by net cash (27% of market cap), a 4% dividend yield, and strong network effects.

We upgrade Full Truck Alliance (YMM) to BUY from HOLD with an $11/share to $13/share valuation range based on a 13x–15x forward multiple, implying ~30% to ~50% upside from the current level.