Clearwater Paper: Asset Value Provides Downside Protection Despite Near-Term Earnings Headwinds

Applying conservative recovery assumptions to the Q1 2026 balance sheet results in an adjusted equity liquidation value of $376 million, implying meaningful downside protection. Q1 EBITDA came in slightly above expectations despite weather disruptions. Lower industry supply, declining FBB imports, announced price increases, and improving utilization rates should gradually support margins. Augusta integration, uncertain insurance claims related to the acquisition, commodity cost inflation, and the absence of full-year EBITDA guidance continue to limit visibility. Nevertheless, we believe the current valuation more than compensates investors for these risks.

Our readers know that we like paper companies, and over the last year, we have made a few changes. We downgraded International Paper (IP) twice, now with a sell rating, while we continue to see