Rocket Companies: Buying The Bottom Of A Cycle

Summary Rocket Companies is a profitable, share-gaining, self-funding mortgage originator trading at book value, while a six-indicator housing composite reads bottoming rather than recovering. RKT posted record market share, expanding core gain-on-sale margins to 3.11% and servicing income, even as mortgage rates hovered near 52-week highs. The investment thesis is a levered bet on lower mortgage rates, with RKT’s scale and balance sheet providing downside protection and upside capture. RKT is not cheap on headline multiples, but its valuation reflects trough earnings; the cycle’s turn depends on macro policy and rate normalization. Editor's note: Seeking Alpha is proud to welcome Nicolas Bolsinger as a new contributing analyst. You can become one too! Share your best investment idea by submitting your article for review to our editors. Get published, earn money, and unlock exclusive SA Premium access. This article was written by Nicolas Bolsinger 2 Followers Follow I write macro and single-name equity research from Buenos Aires. My core coverage is rates, mortgage finance and housing: where policy expectations, the curve and credit meet; Extending into commodities when they drive the rates story, as they have through 2026. My method is the part I'd want judged. Every call is pre-registered with an explicit falsification test and a date: I publish what would make me wrong before the outcome is known, then grade it publicly. Recent examples include rate-path calls on the Fed, ECB, BoE and BoJ, graded on the record. I build the underlying tooling myself: factor models, Monte Carlo DCFs, seasonal-placebo tests and a self-built macro terminal, so every figure is reproducible. Economics, Universidad de Buenos Aires Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of RKT either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. My exposure to RKT is economic rather than registered: the shares are held in a family member's account and I receive the profit and loss on 206 of them. I wrote this article myself and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it other than from Seeking Alpha, and I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.