Novo's new strategy hinges on something it can't manufacture: investor trust

Novo Nordisk set out ambitions to launch more than five potential multi-blockbuster drugs by 2030 on Monday, but shares fell 8%. Analysts said the update offered little new to restore confidence after the company's shares tumbled over the past two years. In a sit-down interview with CNBC, CEO Mike Doustdar said the sale fall showed "we still need to do more work on building trust of the market."

Danish drugmaker Novo took the world by storm with its diabetes and weight loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy. But this week, the company failed to reassure investors that it has a plan to compete after semaglutide, the active ingredient in those medicines, loses exclusivity in key markets in the early 2030s. It announced plans to launch more than five potential blockbuster drugs by 2030 at its Capital Markets Day on Monday. Shares fell 8%, compounding two years of decline. Barclays analysts noted "limited new disclosure to increase confidence," while Jefferies said it failed to "derisk the trajectory or offer a strategic reset." Meanwhile, shares in Novo's chief rival, Eli Lilly, are up 58% over the past 12 months.

Sydbank analyst Soren Hansen, who attended Novo's Capital Markets Day, told CNBC the announcements were "all about trust." Asked about this, Novo CEO Mike Doustdar said: "The reaction of the market is a testament that we still need to do more work on building trust of the market." Sitting alongside two of the executives charged with delivering the new strategy, he told CNBC: "Trust is compounded and is built over time."

Novo has spent billions expanding factories to make more weight-loss drugs and is racing to replenish its pipeline with the next generation of medicines. But Doustdar told CNBC credibility would now have to be rebuilt through financial and scientific results "quarter by quarter." "Our job is to not deviate from our strategic direction and continue outperforming our own expectations," he said.

The new strategy to diversify beyond the core pipeline also contrasts with when Doustdar emphasized simplification and a sharpened focus on diabetes and obesity on becoming CEO last August. Doustdar rejected the suggestion that amounted to a "U-turn." "There is actually not as big of a disconnect that sometimes meets the eye," he said. He added that, when he became CEO, he found that, outside diabetes and obesity, there had been a fourfold increase in early-stage assets moving toward clinical development over the previous three to four years, while the core pipeline had been essentially flat. Then, it was important to stress internally and externally that the focus was on diabetes and obesity, "and that actually worked," he said. Pointing to the early-stage pipeline unveiled on Monday, Doustdar said that Novo has now reached the point where it can broaden its ambitions again, including in cardiovascular, liver and blood disorders. "It's now time to go back and broaden that area as well, so we don't only stay in core," the CEO added.

However, not everyone is convinced Novo is diversified enough. In their note, Jefferies said the company's portfolio remains heavily exposed to obesity despite the push to diversify its portfolio, as the loss of semaglutide exclusivity looms.