Markets Are Pricing An 'October Surprise' - The Iran Deal?

Summary Markets are pricing an "October surprise", possibly the US-Iran deal, and possibly facilitated by China. Thus, oil fell by 5% on Monday, and the stock market soared higher, yet the bond market did not react as much, and VIX stayed at around 15. In my opinion, the US-Iran deal remains elusive, and thus, the stock market is setting up for a major correction as the oil spike resumes and the yields move higher. gguy44/iStock via Getty Images An October surprise The US mid-term elections on November 3rd are fast approaching and at this point the Democrats are expected to take the control of the House and even the Senate. However, there is still This article was written by Damir Tokic 14.76K Followers Follow Commodity Trading Adviser (CTA), member of National Futures Association. Professor of Finance, research on Global-macro issues. Editor-in-Chief, Journal of Corporate Accounting and Finance. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.