Tempus AI Sees Pricing, Data Growth Fueling Long-Term Expansion

Diagnostics remains Tempus AI’s largest business , with durable demand for genomic profiling and higher average selling prices. FDA approvals could enable ADLT pricing, potentially adding $80 million–$100 million annually for solid-tumor testing and $250 million–$300 million for liquid biopsy if approved. Data licensing is expanding rapidly: the business grew about 36% in the latest quarter and added roughly $200 million in contract value. Tempus sees potential for approximately 30% annual oncology-data growth, supported by a repository covering about 50 million patients. The planned Personalis acquisition is expected to strengthen Tempus’ molecular residual disease testing and reimbursement position, while a potential role in Merck and Moderna’s personalized melanoma vaccine rollout could provide additional sequencing revenue.

Founder and CEO Eric Lefkofsky said the company’s second-quarter performance was supported by continued demand for comprehensive genomic profiling and growth in its data-licensing business. Speaking at Morgan Stanley’s Global Healthcare Conference, Lefkofsky said the diagnostics business, particularly solid-tumor profiling and liquid biopsy testing used for therapy selection, remained the company’s largest business line. He said demand has been durable while average selling prices have increased.

Tempus’ data-licensing business also continued to expand, according to Lefkofsky. He said the business grew about 36% in the most recent quarter and recorded roughly $200 million in total contract value additions. Lefkofsky attributed demand in part to biopharmaceutical companies’ increasing investments in artificial intelligence and related computing infrastructure.

Lefkofsky reiterated Tempus’ expectation for at least 25% growth over the next several years, saying the company was designed to pursue sustained long-term growth rather than a shorter period of faster expansion.

In diagnostics, he highlighted expected pricing changes for Tempus’ core oncology assays. The company’s solid-tumor test received FDA approval for both tumor-normal and tumor-only testing, which Lefkofsky said will allow the platform to transition to Advanced Diagnostic Laboratory Test, or ADLT, pricing. He said the shift is expected to provide an estimated $80 million to $100 million of incremental annual average selling price, profit and free-cash-flow benefit beginning next year if the company does not reinvest the proceeds.

Tempus’ liquid-biopsy assay is also before the FDA, Lefkofsky said. If approved, he expects the test to receive ADLT pricing and enter the market in the second half of 2027. He said the expected pricing could rise from about $3,200 currently to the mid- to high-$7,000 range, potentially producing $250 million to $300 million in annual uplift.

Lefkofsky also cited faster unit growth and rising prices in molecular residual disease, or MRD, testing. He said the company expects its hereditary testing business, acquired through Ambry Genetics, to return to mid-teens growth toward the end of the year after lapping volume gains associated with Invitae’s bankruptcy.

Tempus’ planned acquisition of Personalis is centered on what Lefkofsky described as a best-in-class, whole-genome-based MRD assay with strong sensitivity and specificity. Tempus had previously served as Personalis’ exclusive U.S. distributor.