Weekly Market Pulse: What Now?

Summary The CME’s FedWatch tool currently shows a better than even chance of a further hike at next month’s meeting and a 44% chance of a hike in December. In an inflationary environment, the 10-year yield usually needs to rise above NGDP growth to kill the inflation. There are obviously scenarios where NGDP growth does fall. The AI buildout could slow significantly, and that seems more likely today with OpenAI and Anthropic arguing for a slowing. ToucanStudios/E+ via Getty Images Come writers and critics Who prophesize with your pen And keep your eyes wide The chance won’t come again And don’t speak too soon For the wheel’s still in spin And there’s no tellin’ who This article was written by Joseph Calhoun 2.99K Followers Follow Joe has worked in the financial services industry since 1992 in various capacities, including Operations Manager, Compliance Manager, Registered Representative and Portfolio Manager. From 1997 to 2006, when he founded Alhambra Investment Management, Mr. Calhoun was a Director of Investments at Oppenheimer & Co. Mr. Calhoun holds the Series 63 (Uniform Securities Agent State Law) and 65 (Uniform Investment Advisor Law) securities licenses. He has previously taken and passed the Series 7 (General Securities Representative) and Series 9/10 (General Securities Sales Supervisor) securities exams. Joe proudly served in the U.S. Navy’s nuclear submarine service for 8 years (1983-1990) and was awarded several commendations including the Navy Achievement Medal in 1987. He studied engineering at the University of South Carolina and is a graduate of the U.S. Navy’s Nuclear Propulsion School. He founded Alhambra Investment Management as a registered investment advisory to address the needs of the individual investor. His market commentaries are widely read and published at various online outlets. He has appeared on Larry Kudlow’s program on CNBC and various radio programs. He is also an editor of the website RealClearMarkets.com.