Global M&A Value Rises as Megadeals Return, but the Recovery Remains Narrow

Global M&A activity strengthened further in the first eight months of 2026, with aggregate deal value rising 15% year over year and exceeding the ten-year average by 11%. Megadeals worldwide climbed to 37, up from 24 during the same period last year, surpassing the record of 32 reached in 2021. But deal volume across much of the rest of the market has yet to recover, leaving the rebound narrower than the aggregate numbers suggest.

These are among the findings of a new report from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) , M&A Report 2026, released today. The analysis draws on data from LSEG and from BCG's proprietary M&A Sentiment Index and M&A Explorer platform, which measure the near-term deal outlook and market performance of M&A deals.

Divergence is clearest by deal size. Transactions valued at $1 billion or more are running above longer-term norms, while the volume of lower-tier deals—especially for small-cap and midcap transactions—remains below normal levels even before adjusting for inflation, which would make the shortfall more pronounced. BCG identifies five tests for assessing deal executability: asset readiness, market-clearing economics, resilient financing, organizational capacity, and regulatory clearance. Asset availability and economics are currently the most binding constraints on a broader recovery; financing and organizational capacity are less restricted at the market level, although they still shape individual deals.

BCG's M&A Sentiment Index—a proprietary approach to measuring current near-term deal outlook that combines fundamental market drivers with AI-based analysis of corporate communications—rose to 83 in the first eight months of 2026, up from 79 at the start of the year but below its long-term average of 100. The improvement is uneven across sectors: sentiment was strongest in financial institutions and real estate (108), health care (100), and energy (96), while industrials (66), consumer (64), and technology (52) lagged. Notably, the weaker deal sentiment reading in the technology and consumer sectors sits alongside continued deal-value growth in both. Technology, media, and telecommunications remained the largest sector by aggregate deal value, up 11% year over year, while consumer deal value rose 20%.

AI is playing a dual role in the current cycle. It is encouraging new investment and deal activity in parts of the market but also adding uncertainty around the durability of business models, revenue pools, and competitive positioning in others, making some assets harder to value and transact. A sharp correction in software company valuations earlier this year, together with a pullback in private-equity software deal activity, is an early sign of that dynamic.