MBB: Intermediate Duration Not Suitable At The Head Of Possible Rate Hiking Cycle

Summary The iShares MBS ETF (MBB) faces downside risk due to rising intermediate-term rates and persistent inflation pressures as an intermediate duration FI exposure. Convexity risk and borrower prepayment optionality limit MBB's upside in speculative positive developments, while effective duration of 5.68 years exposes it to a possible rate hiking cycle incoming. Fed's hawkish stance, strong jobs data, geopolitical instability, and crowding out dynamics in debt markets reinforce the bear case for MBB as a duration bet. Cheaper alternatives like VMBS with similar duration and lower expense ratio make MBB less attractive even in a favorable, less rate-volatile environment for mortgage-backed securities. Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of The Value Lab get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Learn More » alexsl/iStock via Getty Images The iShares MBS ETF ( MBB ) is a pretty large ETF with AUM of around 38.85 billion USD, so a lot of scale with which to deal with new unit issuances easily. The methodology relies on a This article was written by Valkyrie Trading Society 5.62K Followers Follow The Valkyrie Trading Society is a team of analysts sharing high conviction and obscure developed market ideas that are downside limited and likely to generate non-correlated and outsized returns in the context of the current economic environment and forces. They are long-only investors.They lead the investing group The Value Lab where they offer members a portfolio with real time updates, chat to answer questions 24/7, regular global market news reports, feedback on member stock ideas, new trades monthly, quarterly earnings write-ups, and daily macro opinions. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.