Nucor: The Q3 Guidance Is Not A Thesis Breaker

Nucor remains the best-run, lowest-cost, and most shareholder-friendly steelmaker, but I maintain a Hold rating, as most positives are priced in. Q2 results were outstanding—$10.4B revenue (+23% Y/Y), $4.84 EPS, and record steel mill shipments—yet Q3 guidance disappointed due to cost pressures, not demand. Valuation sits at a P/E of 20.97 and EV/EBITDA of 11.39, below some peers, with FCF yield improving but still slim versus post-COVID highs. Key upside risks include accelerated West Coast ramp and buybacks; downside risks are HRC prices dropping below $900 or broader import pressure.

It has been a while since I last covered Nucor Corporation (NUE), probably my favorite steel producer company, as I believe that it has key advantages in the industry. I last downgraded the firm as it originally This article was written by Louis Gerard 4K Followers Follow As a detail-oriented investor with a strong foundation in finance and business writing, I focus on analyzing undervalued and disliked companies or industries that have strong fundamentals and good cash flows. I have a particular interest in sectors such as Oil&Gas and consumer goods. Basically, anything that has been unloved for unjustified reasons that could offer substantial returns. Energy Transfer is one of those companies that I came across when no one wanted to touch it and now I can't resolve myself to sell it. I will always focus more on long-term value investing but I can sometimes lose myself in possible deal arbitrage such as with Microsoft/ Activision Blizzard, Spirit Airlines/Jetblue (that one still hurts), and Nippon/U.S. Steel (perfect exit at $50.19). I tend to shun businesses that I can't understand either high-tech or certain consumer goods such as fashion (give me a Levi's jeans). I don't understand why anyone would invest in cryptocurrencies as well. Through Seeking Alpha, I aim to connect with like-minded investors, share insights, and build a collaborative community of individuals seeking superior returns and informed decision-making, currently on a quest to review every public company.