PBF Energy: War Is The Unpredictable Wild Card (Rating Upgrade)

Summary PBF Energy has surged nearly 200% YTD, with Enterprise Value now exceeding previous conflict-driven peaks. Third quarter profitability is projected to be significantly better than an already strong Q2. There appears to be no end in sight of the continued attacks on Russian and Middle East infrastructure. All of this continues to elevate the need for US based fuels. However, supply-demand imbalances risk triggering demand destruction, which could forcibly rebalance the market and pressure PBF. The company appears fairly valued, however future cash builds are likely to drive the stock price higher. davidphotographyca/iStock via Getty Images Thesis I last covered PBF Energy ( PBF ) in July with a sell rating as I felt the risk versus reward profile for PBF had materially shifted out of favor for investors. While I wasn't necessarily This article was written by Ron Ferrie 3.9K Followers Follow I am a Licensed Professional Engineer who works in the Nuclear Power industry. I use my professional working knowledge of the power/energy industries to aid in evaluating potential equities worthy of long-term investment. I invest in income producing equities and rental real estate properties for cash flow and long-term appreciation. My articles are to serve as a platform for presenting the underlying fundamentals and long-term potential of each equity/business. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.