$105 Oil Is Quietly Engineering Its Own Demise

Seven months into the Iran war, crude has once again touched above $105 a barrel, just weeks after trading as low as $68. Refined-product markets have tightened systemically, forcing commodity desks to abandon the models they relied on when hostilities began. The strain is now as physical as it is financial. Saudi Arabia shut its 7 million barrel-a-day East-West pipeline after a drone strike from Iraq, removing the largest overland bypass to the Strait of Hormuz, where daily transits remain in the low teens, against more than 120 before the conflict. Diesel is the acute pressure point. Wholesale prices have averaged $161 a barrel over the past six months, 59% above pre-war expectations, according to the Center for Research on Energy and Clean News . The turmoil has spread to the bond market, with 10-year Treasu...