TLT: My Father Taught Me Not To Speculate On Rates, I'm About To Do It With This ETF

My mentor always told me never to speculate on rates, but today I'm looking at TLT with interest. Current 20-year yields around 5.3% look elevated relative to Fed inflation and neutral rate projections. Elevated margin debt and record household equity allocation point to a widening equity risk premium, favoring bonds over stocks. TLT's convexity of 3.16 offers good price upside if yields decline, with its 5.33% yield providing a partial and potential cushion.

My father taught me even before university, before certifications, and before experience in banking and independent management one rule: "On rates you don't speculate." Stocks are analyzed, commodities too, but on government bonds… you just buy and that's it. They