Vale: Base Metals Are Supporting The Multiple

Summary Vale’s iron ore business is still doing little to help the bull case, with realized prices near $95/t and cost pressure keeping earnings upside limited. Vale Base Metals is becoming much more important, with copper now driving most of VBM’s EBITDA and improving the company’s overall earnings mix. That stronger Base Metals contribution may justify a richer multiple for Vale, but the company is still predominantly a ferrous story. At roughly 4.8x forward EV/EBITDA, Vale looks closer to fairly valued than obviously cheap, even after the recent selloff. Vale’s setup now looks more balanced, but the stock still needs better asymmetry and a wider margin of safety to become compelling again. Hammad Khan/iStock via Getty Images In April of this year, I wrote an article about Vale SA ( VALE ) entitled "A Re-Rating Without A Cycle Shift Into Q1" , where I laid out a bearish thesis arguing that it was This article was written by Bernard Zambonin 1.89K Followers Follow Equity Research Analyst at DM Martins Research.I cover stocks that are often undercovered, focusing primarily on Brazil and Latin America — but I also occasionally write about global large caps. My work can also be found on TipRanks, where I contribute regularly, and on TheStreet, where I was a frequent contributor in the past.- Disclaimer: All views expressed here are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or official positions of DM Martins Research. My articles and analyses are for educational and informational purposes only and should not be taken as investment advice. Always do your own due diligence before making any investment decisions. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.