The Global Fuel Crisis Has Arrived: Why 3 Refiners Could Be The Biggest Winners

Summary Three U.S. refiners with Strong Buy ratings could be among the biggest winners in the global fuel crisis, as diesel hits a record high and gasoline prices remain elevated. Capacity constraints driven by geopolitical conflicts, combined with a tight California market, could further boost refining margins. Even if oil prices pull back, the opportunity may remain intact, with the diesel-crude crack spread reaching an all-time high, surpassing $100 per barrel. SA Quant identified three refining stocks uniquely positioned to capitalize on the fuel supply shock, offering strong momentum and robust, profitable growth. I am Steven Cress, Head of Quantitative Strategies at Seeking Alpha. I manage the quant ratings and factor grades on stocks and ETFs in Seeking Alpha Premium. I also lead Quant Growth and Income , which is a model portfolio for dividend investors interested in capital appreciation and income. DogoraSun/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Supply Shock: Record Diesel Prices Put Refining Margins in Focus The global fuel crisis is here, and in my view, U.S. refiners could be among the biggest winners, with a tailwind that may last for some time. It’s not just about higher oil prices. Tight gasoline This article was written by Steven Cress, Quant Team 101.4K Followers Follow Steven Cress is VP of Quantitative Strategy and Market Data at Seeking Alpha. Steve is also the creator of the platform’s quantitative stock rating system and many of the analytical tools on Seeking Alpha. His contributions form the cornerstone of the Seeking Alpha Quant Rating system, designed to interpret data for investors and offer insights on investment directions, thereby saving valuable time for users. He is also the Founder and Co-Manager of Alpha Picks, a systematic stock recommendation tool designed to help long-term investors create a best-in-class portfolio.Steve is passionate and dedicated to removing emotional biases from investment decisions. Utilizing a data-driven approach, he leverages sophisticated algorithms and technologies to simplify complex, laborious investment research, creating an easy-to-follow, daily updated grading system for stock trading recommendations.Steve was previously the Founder and CEO of CressCap Investment Research until its acquisition by Seeking Alpha in 2018 for its unparalleled quant analysis and market data capabilities. Prior to that, he had also founded the quant hedge fund Cress Capital Management, after spending most of his career running a proprietary trading desk at Morgan Stanley and leading international business development at Northern Trust.With over 30 years of experience in equity research, quantitative strategies, and portfolio management, Steve is well-positioned to speak on a wide range of investment topics. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given that any particular security, portfolio, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The author is not advising you personally concerning the nature, potential, value or suitability of any particular security or other matter. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any investment, security or strategy, or any product or service, is appropriate or suitable for you based on your investment objectives and personal and financial situation. Steven Cress is the Head of Quantitative Strategy at Seeking Alpha. Any views or opinions expressed herein may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank.