Ignore The Noise, Watch These Two Things Instead

Jack Bowman 10.41K Followers Follow Summary Investors are blasted with all kinds of news stories. Those with limited time are best off observing the market as it is and making hard, big-picture calls. The S&P 500 is fairly valued based on current metrics. Forward P/E sits at 19.3x, 8% above its one-year median; trailing P/E is 25x, exactly its 7-year median. But at nearly 5%, the 10-year Treasury is finally worth owning for income. I'd stay at 10 years and shorter, not going 20 to 30 years out. These two come into conflict with each other and prompt investors to consider the big macro allocation between the two assets; adding to both at these levels makes sense. LuckyBusiness/iStock via Getty Images If you're a regular reader of financial publications, like myself, you may—also like myself—find yourself at times feeling a little dizzy from all the competing macro narratives at play. Writing about all of these is the only way I stay sane (just crossed This article was written by Jack Bowman 10.41K Followers Follow Jack Bowman is a financial columnist and independent analyst, ranked in the top 5% of experts on TipRanks. He writes The Macro Obsession, a Sunday newsletter on finance, technology, and the real economy. It's chart- and narrative-driven. Jack unfiltered, with no editors and no guardrails. On Seeking Alpha, Jack is best known for macro commentary and ETF coverage, though he also writes on technology, materials, and retail equities; most frequently on securities he holds or is weighing for his own portfolio. He invests across asset classes with a core focus on ETFs. Jack spent five years in investment advisory, running Bowman Capital Management, and contracting for independent RIAs, with work largely centered on portfolio management. He passed the Series 65 (the Uniform Investment Adviser Law Examination) and was registered as an investment adviser representative starting in 2021. Before that, Jack was classically trained as a social science educator. He holds a BA in history with a public-history concentration and a master of education in pedagogy. He taught senior-level economics, civics, history, psychology, and journalism at a public high school for four years. Jack was a teacher for six years total, with his earlier two years spent at a public middle school teaching social sciences to academically gifted students. "Successful investing requires holding uncomfortably idiosyncratic positions." — Howard Marks, paraphrasing David Swensen Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of S&P 500 either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.