Enbridge: A $41 Billion Growth Backlog Meets A Mainline Volume Threat

Hunting Alphas 8.93K Followers Follow Summary Enbridge’s CAD 41 billion secured growth backlog supports a 5% long-term CAGR in adjusted EBITDA, DCF per share, and EPS, with 2027 a major commissioning year. The Mainline System contributes roughly one-third of Enbridge EBITDA, making emerging competing egress pipelines a material medium-term throughput risk. Debt to EBITDA is 5.1x, above Enbridge’s 4.5x to 5.0x target, while interest expense consumes roughly 27% of adjusted EBITDA. This is a risk to monitor amid rising rates. ENB trades at 13.0x 1-yr fwd EV/EBITDA, above peers and its historical median, while technicals indicate a range-bound share price near support. I rank CAD denominated preferreds above USD denominated preferreds to simplify against FX risks, whilst preferring securities with a rate reset. I think the preferreds are more insulated than the common stock against some operational business risks. gettinthere/iStock via Getty Images Performance assessment Enbridge Inc. ( ENB ) has done decently well for the kind of stock it is (it is hard for a 0.19 beta stock to outperform the market in a bull market) since my This article was written by Hunting Alphas 8.93K Followers Follow Hunting Alphas manages a long-only, zero-leverage global equity portfolio through a Self Managed Super Fund. The main portfolio managed is defensive in nature and on a risk-adjusted basis, it has outperformed the market, generating 7.5% annualized alpha, Sortino ratio of 2.0, Information Ratio of 0.67, and low max drawdowns.Hunting Alphas' articles are 5-Minute Stock Pitches that focus on the core stock drivers based on fundamentals, sentiment, valuations, and technical analysis across all types of sectors.Portfolio performance is shared monthly, portfolio holdings disclosed weekly and all the Excel models for the 5-Minute Pitches are shared on the Hunting Alphas website. Note: Hunting Alphas is related to VishValue Research on Seeking Alpha. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.