S&P500: Big Changes Spark A Bullish Outlier (Technical Analysis)

Andrew McElroy 18.01K Followers Follow Summary The S&P 500 (SPY) has delivered extraordinary 2026 earnings growth, with Q2 EPS up 50.8% and technicals remaining ultra-bullish. Much of the EPS beat stems from non-operating investment gains, while real growth is driven by AI-related CapEx. Forward PE is a reasonable 20.7, but the market is vulnerable if EPS growth slows to 10-20%, making risk management crucial. I have shifted to an ultra-bullish outlook, adding to long-term holdings and targeting 8150–8500 by year-end, contingent on technical support holding. mustafaU/iStock via Getty Images At the start of each year, I outline an annual outlook for the S&P500 ( SPY) incorporating macro, technicals, and other evidence. Last year, the outlook worked all year. This year, it didn't - I expected a typical mid-term correction to set up a 2027 rally, but got a This article was written by Andrew McElroy 18.01K Followers Follow Andrew McElroy is Chief Analyst at Matrixtrade, author of the ebook 'Fractal Market Mastery' and producer of the 'Daily Edge.' The 'Daily Edge' is emailed before each US session and outlines actionable ideas, directional bias, and important levels in the S&P500. It also looks at 'What's Hot,' on any particular day, whether it is commodities, stocks, crypto, or forex. Andrew has developed a top-down proprietary system that starts with his weekend Seeking Alpha article focusing on the higher timeframes. Fractals, Elliott Wave, and Demark exhaustion signals are all incorporated, as are macro drivers and analysis of the market narrative. It is much more than just a few lines on a chart - it is a system developed over 15 years and proven to deliver a consistent edge. An independent trader since 2009, Andrew manages a family portfolio of stocks and ETFs with his wife and fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Macrogirl. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VOO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.