Traders shorten odds on October debut for Anthropic

Betting markets now put a 62% probability on Anthropic listing its shares by the end of October, up 19 percentage points, as the artificial intelligence company edges towards what would be one of the largest flotations in history. Contracts on Polymarket, a prediction market where users trade on the outcome of future events, imply an 83% chance of a listing by the end of December, though that figure has slipped 7 points. The nearer-term contracts tell a different story. Odds on a listing by 15 September have collapsed to 2%, down 33 points, while the 30 September contract has fallen 73 points to 13%. Together the moves suggest traders have pushed their central expectation back from September into late October, in line with the timetable widely reported since the company filed confidentially for a listing on 1 June. Anthropic, the developer of the Claude chatbot and a rival to OpenAI , is targeting a Nasdaq debut with Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) leading the offering. Its most recent private funding round, completed in May, valued the company at about $965 billion. A listing above $1 trillion would be a first for an artificial intelligence company. The market has attracted $1.4 million in trading volume, with more than $490,000 of that on the 30 September contract alone. Related markets price an 85% chance that Anthropic reaches the public markets before OpenAI, which filed its own confidential paperwork a week later, and a 96% chance the company is worth at least $600 billion at the close of its first day. Only a 3% probability is attached to Anthropic being acquired before 2027, an outcome that would void the listing contracts.