Supermajor Earnings: Exxon & Chevron's Impact on ETF Market

The two largest U.S. integrated supermajors, Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) , reported second-quarter profits that surged on rising oil prices due to renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. With these two firms accounting for large allocations in many energy ETFs, their earnings serve as a primary catalyst for the entire energy ETF landscape.

ExxonMobil reported EPS of $3.52 (missed estimates due to refining challenges), but it beat revenue expectations at $116.02 billion. Conversely, Chevron posted EPS of $6.06 on revenue of $70 billion, beating consensus estimates with a significant profit increase in its refining and E&P segments. Profits for both integrated majors surged due to rising oil prices and higher refining margins, driven by renewed geopolitical instability in the Middle East. Exxon and Chevron represent top holdings in major energy ETFs such as the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) and the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE), making their earnings performance a primary driver for the broader energy sector.

Exxon reported EPS of $3.52 on revenue of $116.02 billion, missing consensus EPS estimates of $3.60 and beating revenue estimates of $97.8 billion. Management attributes the EPS miss to a difficulty in the company’s refining business. Exxon CEO Darren Woods explained that the company faced challenges in forecasting prices due to the disruption in global crude and product markets, according to CNBC reporting. Beyond the headline numbers, Exxon’s upstream production hit its highest levels in more than 20 years, excluding disruptions in the Middle East. The company’s worldwide production reached 4.5 million barrels per day, with the Permian Basin, Texas, and New Mexico seeing record outputs. Despite the price forecasting difficulties, Exxon’s refining business announced earnings of $5.5 billion in the second quarter, a complete reversal from the reported loss of $1.3 billion last quarter. The turnaround is driven by strong Gulf Coast utilization and record diesel production, according to CNBC analysis. Exxon stock is down roughly 1.85% since the morning earnings announcement.

Chevron delivered a strong quarter, posting its highest revenue in four years, according to Stockwits analysis. The company reported EPS of $6.06 and revenue of $70 billion, beating analyst expectations of $5.56 and $62 billion, respectively. This was largely driven by surging oil prices and supply disruptions tied to the continuing Middle East conflicts. The oil major reported strong growth across its upstream and downstream business. Chevron’s refining segment saw a 500% year-over-year profit increase from $737 million to $4.9 billion. Meanwhile, the company’s exploration and production (E&P) profits climbed to $7.9 billion from $5.4 billion in second-quarter 2025 earnings. The company has minimally gained 1.74% since the report.

With Exxon and Chevron serving as the two largest U.S. integrated majors by market cap, the two companies’ earnings performance exerts significant influence on the broader energy ETF market. The State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) holds Exxon and Chevron as top holdings, combining for over 36% of total allocations. Tracking the S&P Energy Select Sector Index , the fund provides market-cap weighted exposure to energy companies in the S&P 500 . XLE has slightly climbed 0.15% following the earnings reports, with the fund returning 33.68% in 2026 and receiving inflows of $3.04 billion since the start of the year. In the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) , tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Energy 25/50 Index , Exxon and Chevron make up just under 35% of the total portfolio weight. VDE provides broad market-cap weighted exposure to over 100 U.S. equities in th...