Expert maps upcoming 10% S&P 500 crash

The S&P 500 could be headed for another 10% correction after failing to reclaim recent highs, according to a technical analysis by TradingShot .

TradingShot highlighted that the S&P 500 has repeatedly failed to break above its 50-day moving average (MA50), which has now turned into a resistance level. At the same time, the daily Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) has been forming lower highs, creating a bearish divergence. According to the analysis, every instance in which this combination appeared during the current market cycle was followed by a correction of at least 10%.

Notably, the S&P 500 is developing a double-top formation near recent highs around the 7,600 level. The pattern emerged after the index failed to establish a new record high despite a strong rebound from the April lows. TradingShot noted that a similar setup appeared in February 2026 before a market decline of 10.06%. That correction eventually found support at the 70-week moving average (MA70). An earlier example occurred in February 2025 ahead of heightened U.S.-China trade tensions. The first leg of that sell-off reached 10.48% and also bottomed near the same long-term moving average.

Based on those historical precedents, the analyst believes the current structure carries a high probability of triggering another decline toward 6,865, where the 70-week moving average is projected to provide support.

The bearish technical forecast comes despite a strong year for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 remains near record territory after posting its strongest quarterly performance since 2020. The benchmark index has gained roughly 9.5% year-to-date, supported by robust corporate earnings, resilient economic data, and continued investment tied to artificial intelligence . Second-quarter earnings growth has exceeded expectations, while analysts have continued raising profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027. Wall Street strategists generally maintain year-end targets between 7,700 and 8,100, implying further upside from current levels.