Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels

Bitcoin has rallied ferociously this week after the U.S. Treasury intervened to stop a sell-off in bonds and industry leaders and regulators rallied at the White House to put pressure on Congress to approve the Clarity Act market structure proposal. But traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think that the cryptocurrency likely will end the year near current levels, doubting the coin's rally will go much higher or last.

Bitcoin's more than 20% rally this week has sent the cryptocurrency to heights it hasn't seen since May, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi see it ending 2026 near current levels. Speculators estimate that bitcoin's price at the end of 2026 will be around $75,000, based on an average of contracts on the platform. The contracts on Kalshi ask traders to place "yes" and "no" trades on whether the cryptocurrency will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on Jan. 1, 2027. Contracts are resolved using bitcoin price data from CF Benchmarks.

Bitcoin's surge this week has been powered by two key catalysts: an intervention by the U.S. Treasury to ease a sell-off in the bond market — in turn, relieving pressure on risk assets — and an event at the White House where President Donald Trump, crypto executives and regulators pushed for Congress to approve the market structure Clarity Act proposal. The outlook for where bitcoin will end the year has improved since the flagship crypto's rally. Before Wednesday, Kalshi traders saw it most likely that bitcoin would end the year around $66,000. However, speculators' latest forecast would represent a slight decline from the cryptocurrency's current trading levels. Bitcoin was last trading above $77,000.