ICF International Eyes Growth Rebound as Energy, AI and Federal Modernization Gain Traction

ICF International expects to return to growth after what Chairman and Chief Executive Officer John Wasson described as a transition year in 2025, when changes under the new administration and Department of Government Efficiency-related market impacts contributed to a roughly 25% decline in the company’s federal business. Speaking at a Canaccord Genuity event, Wasson said ICF managed through the period while maintaining profitability and now expects low-single-digit growth this year. At the midpoint of its guidance, the company anticipates 3% revenue growth and 5% growth in non-GAAP earnings per share, with further acceleration expected over time.

ICF, a global advisory and technology services company with approximately $2 billion in revenue and 9,500 employees, provides advisory work including strategy, program design, policy analysis, economic analysis and research. The company also supports clients through implementation services spanning technology, complex program management and change management. The company’s client base is split between government customers, which account for about two-thirds of business, and commercial customers, primarily in energy. Its largest operating areas include energy, environment, infrastructure and disaster recovery, which represent about half of the business, while public health, education, housing and social programs account for about 35%.

Wasson said 60% of ICF’s business is non-federal, including commercial energy, state and local work, disaster recovery and international operations. That portion grew approximately 7% in the second quarter, led by commercial energy. International revenue grew 20%, supported by several large, long-term contract wins during the past year, he said. The remaining 40% of the company’s business is tied to the federal government. Wasson said ICF’s federal operations grew sequentially for a second consecutive quarter, driven primarily by information technology modernization work.

Looking toward 2027 and beyond, Wasson said the company sees potential for high-single-digit to low-double-digit organic growth in its non-federal business. Commercial energy is expected to remain a major driver, alongside international operations and disaster recovery. ICF expects its federal business to grow at a low- to mid-single-digit rate, supported by the modernization of government technology systems. “The federal government is in the fourth or fifth inning of modernizing their backbone systems,” Wasson said, referring to systems that still rely on legacy programming languages and older software. Overall, the company expects to deliver mid- to high-single-digit organic growth from 2027 onward, a pace Wasson said would resemble ICF’s performance from 2020 through 2024.