SpaceX: Paying The Piper First

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. delivered a strong Q2'26 with $7.8B in revenue due to a big boost from AI compute. SPCX's AI and Connectivity units now drive growth, yet require unprecedented capex—at least $400B by 2028—to meet Musk's ambitious 20 GW AI compute target.

The stock's post-lockup rally is likely unsustainable, with looming capital raises and insider selling creating persistent headwinds. The stock is expensive at 17x the aggressive '26 ending ARR; use rallies to exit before dilution and capital shortfalls intensify.