Coinbase trading results may fall short of expectations, according to prediction markets

Coinbase trading results may fall short of expectations, according to prediction markets

Kalshi traders think Coinbase’s trading volume will fall again

Speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi think that Coinbase will report trading volume for the second quarter below $160 billion, lower than analyst estimates. Coinbase's trading volume has fallen for the last two quarters as bitcoin prices' fall has negatively impacted the cryptocurrency trading platform.

As bitcoin prices fell yet again in the second quarter, traders on prediction market platform Kalshi think Coinbase's trading volumes suffered once again. The cryptocurrency trading platform is expected to post a third consecutive quarterly decline of trading volumes, and speculators are also feeling confident that total trading volume will slip below $200 billion for the first time since third quarter 2024. Traders give a 41% chance that trading volume is above $160 billion, and just a 25% chance it's above $170 billion. That compares to analysts' consensus estimates for $168.5 billion, according to FactSet.

Speculators are more certain volume will be above $150 billion, giving that a 99% chance of happening. Coinbase is set to deliver its second-quarter earnings report on July 30. The contract on Kalshi asks traders if Coinbase trading volume will be above various levels, and the outcome is resolved using information from investment research platform Fiscal.ai.

Shares of Coinbase are down more than 55% since bitcoin prices — which are off slightly less than 50% — peaked in October 2025. Coinbase trading volume's previous declines in the first quarter of 2026 and fourth quarter of 2025 came also as Bitcoin prices tumbled over that period.