ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury: Downside Risk Emerges

Passage Research 6.21K Followers Follow Summary ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ETF is initiated with a Sell rating and a $22 price target, implying 14% downside. TBF's performance is closely tied to rising long-term Treasury yields, but current levels do not warrant new bearish positions. I expect core CPI to steadily decline over the next twelve months, reducing the primary driver for further yield increases. Risks to the Sell thesis include unexpected reacceleration in core inflation or strong economic growth sustaining higher yields. Torsten Asmus/iStock via Getty Images ProShares Short 20+ Yr Treasury ETF ( TBF ) has performed well YTD as yields have risen, and being bearish on Treasury bonds, especially longer-duration ones, has proven to be an especially good trade. The question is whether or This article was written by Passage Research 6.21K Followers Follow Passage Research focuses on identifying variant perception through a blend of fundamental analysis and alternative data. The research process combines detailed financial modeling with real-time datasets to underwrite earnings power, margin durability, and forward expectations.The author has spent over a decade on Wall Street, most recently spending the last five years working in the hedge fund industry as an analyst. Typical coverage spans consumer, TMT, industrials and special situations, with an emphasis on asymmetric risk/reward and catalyst-driven opportunities. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in TBF over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.