S&P 500: Prepare To Buy A CPI Capitulation (Technical Analysis)

Andrew McElroy 18.05K Followers Follow Summary The S&P 500 is trading in sync with shifting Fed rate hike odds, with technical levels like 7620 proving pivotal. September's CPI release is the key catalyst; a hotter print could trigger sharp downside, while a soft print may drive new highs. A capitulation through 7620 could set up a buying opportunity. Perhaps the Fed won't hike after all. Despite short-term volatility, the bullish longer-term thesis remains intact unless SPY breaks below 7313 support. AlexSecret/iStock via Getty Images The S&P 500 ( SPY ) swung around last week almost perfectly in line with the odds for a September hike. Tuesday's low of 7611 came about when the odds rose to near 70%, followed by a recovery rally when the odds dropped This article was written by Andrew McElroy 18.05K Followers Follow Andrew McElroy is Chief Analyst at Matrixtrade, author of the ebook 'Fractal Market Mastery' and producer of the 'Daily Edge.' The 'Daily Edge' is emailed before each US session and outlines actionable ideas, directional bias, and important levels in the S&P500. It also looks at 'What's Hot,' on any particular day, whether it is commodities, stocks, crypto, or forex. Andrew has developed a top-down proprietary system that starts with his weekend Seeking Alpha article focusing on the higher timeframes. Fractals, Elliott Wave, and Demark exhaustion signals are all incorporated, as are macro drivers and analysis of the market narrative. It is much more than just a few lines on a chart - it is a system developed over 15 years and proven to deliver a consistent edge. An independent trader since 2009, Andrew manages a family portfolio of stocks and ETFs with his wife and fellow Seeking Alpha contributor Macrogirl. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of VOO either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.