AMD: Buying A Supply Position, Not A Product Cycle

Krzysztof Bogdanski 58 Followers Follow Summary Advanced Micro Devices delivered a strong quarter: 50% revenue growth, record $11.5B sales, and gross margin above 56%. The market undervalued AMD’s capex as an enabler of 2027 supply and growth. Data center revenue now comprises 58% of AMD, guided to more than double by 2027; server CPU revenue is expected to grow over 70%. Key risks include memory cost inflation, ARM’s server share gains, and the cyclicality of hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending. Getty Images I initiated coverage on Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. ( AMD ) with a Buy rating and a fair value range of $550 to $690, built on a segment-level model running to 2028 and three specific things I said I would watch This article was written by Krzysztof Bogdanski 58 Followers Follow I am an individual investor with a long-term focus on identifying high-quality businesses. Having most of my past investments appreciating aggressively, I tend to sell them when they are deemed to have run too far. My primary areas of interest include: technology, financial services, software, and businesses benefiting from durable competitive advantages and secular growth trends. While I closely follow macroeconomic developments and capital markets, my investment decisions are driven primarily by company fundamentals, management quality, competitive positioning, capital allocation, and long-term earnings potential rather than short-term market movements. I recently graduated from IB World School 002709 with 38 points. Beginning this autumn, I plan to pursue a Bachelor's degree in Finance and Accounting at SGH Warsaw School of Economics. As soon as I become eligible, I intend to enroll in the CFA Program to further strengthen my understanding of financial markets. Although I am at the beginning of my professional journey and do not yet have institutional investing experience, I have been actively investing for 2 years and have developed a research-driven investment process. Since March 2024, my family portfolio has generated a return of approximately 160% through investments in U.S. equities. While I recognize that past performance over a relatively short period does not guarantee future results, I am keen to now take it much more seriously (with more time to both deepen my knowledge and perform analyses). Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of AMD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.