The Fed Is Not Going To Raise Interest Rates

Recent deescalation in Iran led to a sharp 10% drop in oil prices and a modest decline in interest rates, boosting equities. Investors remain cautious on big tech, scrutinizing AI infrastructure spending at Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon amid uncertain monetization. Despite rising odds, I see zero chance of a Fed rate hike this week and doubt any increase before midterm elections. Upcoming PCE index changes and falling oil prices support the thesis that disinflation will persist, likely keeping Fed policy unchanged through year end.