The Fat Tail Risks Hiding In Plain Sight

The global energy market faces acute fat-tail risks from ongoing US-Iran conflict, threatening a structural supply crisis. Strategic reserves in the US, Japan, and Europe are critically depleted, making prolonged disruptions unsustainable. High-valuation 'meme stocks' like TSLA and PLTR are especially vulnerable in a risk-off, volatile environment. I maintain a Hold rating on crude oil due to unattractive entry points, advocating cash allocation for portfolio flexibility.

The energy markets are in a dire state, and the fat-tail risk is hard to ignore. If the US-Iran war persists, the global economy could enter into an energy crisis. Meme stocks such as Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) are particularly susceptible to a risk-off environment.