Post Holdings: A Re-Rating Story With Double-Digit Buybacks On Top

Post Holdings remains a Strong Buy, driven by robust free cash flow, aggressive buybacks, and a resilient portfolio despite macro headwinds. POST’s H1 ’26 free cash flow rose to $270.3 million, with a projected FY26 FCF that could reach ~$698 million, for a P/FCF ratio near 5.6x. Management is prioritizing high-yield buybacks over debt repayment, recently authorizing an additional $600 million program after retiring ~15% of shares in H1. Valuation analysis implies a steep market discount, with intrinsic value estimated at $134.54 per share, well above current levels even when using conservative estimates. The last time I covered Post Holdings ( POST ), I upgraded it to Strong Buy, as it outperformed expectations while generating strong free cash flow and accelerating its double-digit buybacks. Following another solid quarter.