Gold: Soft Debt Default Using Inflation

Sarel Oberholster 4.6K Followers Follow Summary I maintain a "Strong Buy" on gold, expecting it to outperform its last cycle’s 210% gain as it reasserts its role as a global reserve asset. Gold’s bullish thesis is underpinned by accelerating M2 money supply, persistent U.S. deficit spending, and the likelihood of an 'inflate-away-the-debt' policy. International trust erosion in the U.S. dollar, surging US trade deficits, and global central bank gold accumulation—especially by China—further support XAU’s upside. Risks to gold’s thesis are minimal; alternatives to inflation-driven debt relief appear politically and economically untenable, making gold the premier inflation hedge. sasha85ru/iStock via Getty Images Red-hot precious metal prices took a breather since the end of January 2026. The 12-month performance of precious metals (more than 24 months for gold) prior to the January 2026 peak was exceptional, as shown in the around 24-month This article was written by Sarel Oberholster 4.6K Followers Follow My economics book Central Bank Conmen, Economic Robbers and Bankrupters of Empires is now available on Amazon. My retail trader book series, The Paranoid Trader and The BIG FISH Trader, is also available on Amazon. I seek understanding in everything but economics, markets and investing are where my mind is most at ease. In this I am forever doing research in my quest for answers. I do view the world from many different angles. Understanding economic behavioral patterns are important to me. Strategic investing over the medium to longer term is predominantly my focus when I contemplate my research or philosophies. I have a compulsion to express my thoughts in ordered form and my essays are the result of such expressions. I'm an economist by training, a financial engineer by talent, a banker by profession, a trader by interest and a father by chance. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of XAGUSD:CUR either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.