Semiconductors: Best Earnings In The S&P, Worst Tape

On August 17, Nvidia agreed to stand behind up to $105 billion in lease value for OpenAI. That tenant did $6.7 billion in revenue last quarter, which isn't particularly exciting. Nvidia's confidence bought the sector nothing. SOX fell about 5% on August 18, the day the 30-year traded around 5.33% intraday, and I don't think demand was the reason. That said, hyperscaler CapEx appears largely intact. Alphabet raised 2026 capex guidance to $195-$205 billion on July 22, and Google expanded its custom-silicon deal with Marvell on August 19. The funding is the bit I don't like. Reuters and LSEG put 2026 AI and Big Tech bond issuance above $220 billion by August 19, about double all of 2025. Short term, the charts don't look bullish and I think there may be more volatility ahead before semis find a floor. I'm raising cash and preparing to enter at a better point. intek1/iStock via Getty Images Let’s start with dessert. Nvidia filed an 8-K on August 17 agreeing to stand behind up to $105 billion of lease value on a data center campus in Ohio. The tenant on those 20-year leases is OpenAI, which reported a disappointing This article was written by Deep Value Investing 14.36K Followers Follow Thematic. Top down. I often find the theme before I find the stock. My philosophy is that themes are often born quiet and die loud. I try to catch them while they're still finding their voice. When the music plays, I mainly chase pockets that rhyme with growth, momentum, perception shifts, and sometimes even the most absurd narratives (mostly AI-related). When the music slows and the tape deteriorates, I don't wait around. I raise cash/rotate out, and watch for the next setup. A parabolic run may trigger a similar move. During a bull run, you won't find much common ground between the deep value crowd and me. I liked the core ideas of deep value investors, and I briefly followed that philosophy. However, it demands patience, and the AI supercycle broke whatever patience I had left. The market changed, and so did I. My style is not set in stone. I’m mostly long when the music is playing. When it stops/slows down, I may dabble with shorts via put options, although it’s not my forte. My style is highly speculative. I have a high risk tolerance that most rational investors would find alarming. I don’t have a favorite timeframe. That said, I trade mostly the mid-term and the short-term. I have a pathetic low six-digit portfolio, and I consider myself part of the mid to low end of the K-shaped economy. It sometimes drops to the five-digit range when life has other plans. I've been in the game since mid 2024, although my first dabbles with stocks (i.e., burning $100 trading accounts in a matter of days) go back to the early/mid 2010s. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and experience as a consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I live on the wrong side of the Atlantic. The opening bell is my lunch bell. I like astrology, so I’m a follower of technical analysis (mainly trends and support/resistance/psychological levels). I also look at the fundamentals of individual names, although the theme and the macro often prevail in my decision-making. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS (especially), unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MU, MRVL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I may sell any of the positions discussed in this piece within the next 72 hours. I am not a registered investment adv...