The Scarcity Trade At The Heart Of Photonics

Deep Value Investing 14.35K Followers Follow Summary Two American laser makers have committed more cash to one small wafer supplier than it sold in a whole quarter. I wasn't particularly bullish on this theme in May. That changed, although the current broader selloff in AI names is making me skeptical once again, looking at a short-term timeframe. AXT's Q2 2026 gross margin hit 44.9%, up from 8.0% a year earlier. I don't see margins move like that unless the stuff is very hard to get. China put indium phosphide under export licensing in February 2025, and AXT says it can't predict approval timing. Reuters has the average six-inch wafer up 250% since the controls were put in place. I don't think the EML shortage survives beyond 2027. Also, these names are very volatile, so my buy rating is highly speculative. amgun/iStock via Getty Images Two American laser makers have committed more cash to one small wafer supplier than that supplier sold in an entire quarter. Coherent ( COHR ) prepaid AXT ( AXTI ) $22.29 million on June 26, 2026, for This article was written by Deep Value Investing 14.35K Followers Follow Thematic. Top down. I often find the theme before I find the stock. My philosophy is that themes are often born quiet and die loud. I try to catch them while they're still finding their voice. When the music plays, I mainly chase pockets that rhyme with growth, momentum, perception shifts, and sometimes even the most absurd narratives (mostly AI-related). When the music slows and the tape deteriorates, I don't wait around. I raise cash/rotate out, and watch for the next setup. A parabolic run may trigger a similar move. During a bull run, you won't find much common ground between the deep value crowd and me. I liked the core ideas of deep value investors, and I briefly followed that philosophy. However, it demands patience, and the AI supercycle broke whatever patience I had left. The market changed, and so did I. My style is not set in stone. I’m mostly long when the music is playing. When it stops/slows down, I may dabble with shorts via put options, although it’s not my forte. My style is highly speculative. I have a high risk tolerance that most rational investors would find alarming. I don’t have a favorite timeframe. That said, I trade mostly the mid-term and the short-term. I have a pathetic low six-digit portfolio, and I consider myself part of the mid to low end of the K-shaped economy. It sometimes drops to the five-digit range when life has other plans. I've been in the game since mid 2024, although my first dabbles with stocks (i.e., burning $100 trading accounts in a matter of days) go back to the early/mid 2010s. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and experience as a consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I live on the wrong side of the Atlantic. The opening bell is my lunch bell. I like astrology, so I’m a follower of technical analysis (mainly trends and support/resistance/psychological levels). I also look at the fundamentals of individual names, although the theme and the macro often prevail in my decision-making. I dislike empty suits, high-level BS, deep-level BS (especially), unnecessary jargon, and self-indulgent, third-person written introductions with an air of superiority. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of COHR, GLW, AAOI, NOK, AXTI, MRVL, ANET, JBL either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I have a beneficial long position in SIVE and AIXA. I am not a registered investment adviser, broker, dealer, or tax professional. This article, including any comments or replies I post, reflects my personal opinions only and is provided for informational and educational purposes. Nothing I write is investment, legal, tax, or financial advice, or a personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or short any security. My views may change without notice. Nothing I write is tailored to any reader’s objectives, financial situation, risk tolerance, or portfolio. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Readers should conduct their own research and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and indiv