Intuitive Machines: Dilution Is A Drag, But The Backlog Keeps Winning

Q2 confirmed strong operating momentum for Intuitive Machines, with revenue growth and backlog expanding materially despite weaker adjusted EBITDA. Dilution remains the key risk, but recent equity raises appear focused on funding growth rather than survival. Backlog reached ~$1.8 billion, with organic Q2 bookings demonstrating strong underlying demand beyond acquisition-driven growth. Risks include elevated short interest (~23%), sector-relative valuation (~2.8x vs. 1.91 median), and future capex needs, but risk/reward remains attractive.