Hormuz supply disruption reshapes economics for Dune Oil's Turkish oil block

The largest oil supply disruption in recorded history is playing out against an unusual backdrop for a small Vancouver-based energy company: a flagship exploration block in southeastern Türkiye whose independent resource valuation was built on oil prices roughly 50% below where the market is trading today. Dune Oil Corp (CSE:DUNE, OTCQB:TRLEF, FRA:Z620) holds a 29% working interest in Block M47, located in the Cudi-Gabar province of southeastern Türkiye. The block targets 32.4° API light oil, a premium-grade crude benchmarked to Brent. The company is currently fulfilling earn-in obligations, with US$15 million committed across 2026 and 2027 toward the M47 work program, including exploration drilling. The macroeconomic context has shifted substantially since the block's independent resource evaluation was completed. That evaluation used a near-term Brent price assumption of US$63.68 per barrel for 2026. Brent has since traded above US$100 per barrel following the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which Dune estimates has removed approximately 9.1 million barrels per day from global supply -- a disruption the company says exceeds prior historical shocks, including the Gulf War. The unrisked NPV-10 from the independent evaluation stands at US$733.5 million, net to Dune's working interest, at the base-case price assumption. The degree to which sustained higher prices would improve that figure depends on reservoir outcomes that remain unresolved ahead of drilling. Scott Lower, Dune's president, has pus...