A Major Breakout In Treasury Yields May Be Underway

Long-dated US Treasury yields have surged as investors demand higher compensation amid reduced Fed forward guidance and increased uncertainty. The term premium remains historically depressed but is rising, suggesting potential for the 10-year yield to exceed 5% if it returns to prior cycle norms. Technical and historical indicators point to a possible breakout above 4.8% for the 10-year, with a steeper yield curve likely if current trends persist. Rising implied bond market volatility reflects greater uncertainty, signaling investors must adapt to less policy support and higher long-term rates. Treasury yields surged after the FOMC meeting as investors demanded greater compensation for holding long-dated US debt. The move appeared to reflect more than inflation concerns. It also suggested that the market is beginning to price in a Federal