Microchip: The Recovery Is Real, The Multiple Hasn't Caught Up

I rate Microchip Technology a Buy with a fair value of $84–$101 per share, above its $78.86 close. MCHP’s recovery is four quarters old, with revenue up 35% YoY and earnings inflecting, yet the market remains anchored to trough multiples. Forward valuation (21.5x FY28 EPS of $4.20) supports a $90 base case; downside risk is limited unless revenue or margin recovery stalls. Key risks: recovery stalling, margin rebuild failing, or balance sheet leverage becoming problematic; August 6 results are the next catalyst.

I have a buy rating on Microchip Technology Incorporated ( MCHP ) with the fair value estimates ranging from approximately $84 to $101 per share, which is higher than the Friday closing price of $78.86. I think the market is still