United Airlines Q2 preview: high-end beat expected, fuel a wild card

United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL, XETRA:UAL1) will report second-quarter earnings after the market close on Wednesday, with investors focused on how the carrier is managing rising fuel costs against resilient travel demand.

UBS analysts said the bar for second-quarter earnings per share sits at $1.85 to $1.90, well above the midpoint of United's own $1 to $2 guidance. UBS forecasts EPS of $1.91, ahead of the $1.86 consensus, on 3% capacity growth, a 12.8% rise in unit revenue, unit costs excluding fuel up 7%, and fuel at $4.25 per gallon.

Fuel will be a key focus. United typically updates fuel guidance the Friday before earnings, but a sharp jump in jet fuel prices has made the outlook harder to pin down. Gulf Coast jet fuel was trading near $3.60 per gallon and West Coast jet fuel near $3.90, UBS said, and the market will likely benchmark United's assumption against $3.30 to $3.40 per gallon. Consensus for third-quarter EPS guidance sits at $3 to $4; a higher fuel assumption would push that lower.

UBS said the most important signal will be management's confidence in recovering nearly all of the recent fuel spike by the fourth quarter. For full-year 2026, most investors expect EPS guidance of $9 to $11, above the current $7 to $11 range, though the outlook remains fuel-dependent.

UBS said the key metrics to watch will be United's fourth-quarter capacity outlook and its implied fourth-quarter revenue growth. United shares have gained around 8% year-to-date.