Fed Rate Hike Coming This Week, Deteriorating Market Breadth, And More On International

The CME’s fed funds futures probability bar chart for this coming FOMC announcement on September 16th, 2026 says there is an 87.3% probability that the FOMC will raise the current fed funds from a range of 3.50-3.75% (midpoint 3.625%) to a new range of 3.75-4% (midpoint of 3.875%). How much of this is already in the bond market? Given the yield curve shift just this past week, you can easily conclude that a big shift has already happened. We could reasonably assume that any international rally should be able to last 5 years, particularly after a 20-year dry spell between 2005 and 2025.

This is the CME’s fed funds futures probability bar chart for this coming FOMC announcement on Wednesday, September 16th, 2026, and it says there is an 87.3% probability that the FOMC will raise the current fed funds from a