Micron: AI Fatigue Into A Big Day

Micron Technology, Inc. stands at the center of the AI memory boom, with HBM3E supply sold out through 2027 and HBM4E ramping in 2027. Expectations for fiscal Q4 are ridiculously high. We think you need to see revenue above $54 billion, gross margins exceeding 86%, and EPS of at least $33 to avoid selling. The Data Center segment, driven by HBM demand, anchors MU’s growth, while the Mobile and Client/PC segments benefit from rising memory content per device.

Risks include competitive threats from SK hynix and Samsung, potential NAND/DRAM price declines, and investor sentiment reflecting severe AI fatigue impacting valuation. This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, BAD BEAT Investing.

If you have been invested in the semiconductor space recently, you already know that AI and related names have been very volatile. From a massive spring surge to an early summer selloff and choppy action since, it's