Projected Robotaxi (Autonomous Ride-Hailing) Growth By Company And Why I Rate Waymo A Buy

Michael McGrath 4.66K Followers Follow Summary Waymo is the clear autonomous ride-hailing leader, projected to reach $10B revenue and a $175B valuation by 2030. Zoox and Uber, through partnerships and manufacturing scale, are expected to follow, with Uber’s ARS strategy remaining defensive. Tesla lags due to regulatory and deployment hurdles, with a delayed ramp, but accelerating in 2028, but a projected $70B robotaxi business valuation - far below market hype. I rate Alphabet a Buy (potential Waymo spin-off upside), Uber a Hold, and Tesla an aggressive Sell based on ARS prospects and valuation realism. Walter Cicchetti/iStock Editorial via Getty Images Now that robotaxis, which I prefer to call autonomous ride-hailing services (ARS), have proven to be feasible and safe, we can turn our attention to projecting growth for the major competitors in the market. Recent announcements by Zoox ( This article was written by Michael McGrath 4.66K Followers Follow Author of Autonomous Vehicles: Opportunities, Strategies, and Disruptions. Michael E. McGrath is a proven expert on the strategies of technology-based companies. He has researched autonomous vehicles for the last 3 years, leading to the original publication of this book, as well as the recently expanded and updated second edition. He is a founder of PRTM, the leading management consulting firm to technology companies, former CEO of i2Technologies and experienced board member, serving on four public company boards, as well as several venture capital-funded companies. In addition to Autonomous Vehicles, he is the author of Product Strategy for High-Technology Companies, which has been used by many technology-based companies to guide their strategies. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of GOOG either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. I have long positions in GOOG, AMZN, UBER, and a short position in TSLA. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.