SpaceX: Not At This Price

SpaceX remains rated Sell due to excessive valuation, surging CapEx, and mounting operational risks despite strong Q2 growth. Q2 revenue rose 92% Y/Y to $7.81B, but CapEx soared to $18.37B, with AI infrastructure alone consuming $15.83B. Starlink’s pricing power is eroding as ARPU fell 22% Y/Y, and Amazon’s entry threatens margins and growth. Intrinsic value is estimated at $53.59/share—about 60% below market; ongoing insider unlocks and Starship delays compound downside risk.