How long will software-defined cars last? The auto industry doesn't know yet

Software-defined vehicles are becoming more common, especially among brands such as Tesla and Rivian. They have more complex computers that can give continuous software updates, as well as the ability for remote diagnoses and repairs. The relatively short support cycles of smartphones and computers have raised questions about how software-dependent vehicles will age.

Americans are keeping their cars longer than ever before, with the average U.S. vehicle age rising to 12.8 years, according to Mobility Global. But some industry analysts and forecasters worry that highly complex software-defined vehicles will age more like smartphones. These vehicles rely on sophisticated computers and software to control many functions that were once strictly mechanical or managed by simpler technology. They can also receive over-the-air software updates and are typically connected to the internet or communications networks, allowing automakers to remotely diagnose some problems, perform some fixes and add new features.

A software-defined vehicle is really a vehicle which is no longer stale in time. It's a vehicle which continues to improve over time through over-the-air updates, said Rivian Chief Software Officer Wassym Bensaid. What we like to say at Rivian is that the least capable Rivian you will ever get from us is on the day of your purchase, and then it will keep improving and getting better and better over time.

The rise of these tech-heavy vehicles poses implications for the entire automotive world. A vehicle costs, on average, nearly $50,000 in the U.S. — a far bigger investment than a smartphone — but as they age some features could become unavailable because of obsolete hardware or discontinued product support. Ever-changing and often proprietary technologies raise questions about the long-term repairability of a vehicle.

We honestly don't know how long these vehicles will last, said Sam Fiorani, senior vice president of vehicle forecasting for AutoForecastSolutions. We're already seeing problems with hardware not being able to deal with new software.

It's not the first time vehicle owners have faced technology losses. In 2022, AT&T was the first telecommunications company to shut down its 3G wireless network, leaving millions of vehicles from a host of brands without access to features such as emergency response services and some navigation and infotainment options. The vehicles were still operable, just without perks that had been included when the owners purchased their vehicles.

Tesla, meanwhile, said in 2016 that every vehicle being produced had the hardware needed for full self-driving, or FSD, and CEO Elon Musk reaffirmed in 2019 that the company's then-new Hardware 3 computer would support the feature. But this April, Musk said Hardware 3 vehicles would need upgraded computers and cameras for "unsupervised" FSD. Tesla said qualifying customers could receive either a hardware upgrade or a discounted trade-in. Tesla did not respond to a request for comment.

Rivian's Bensaid said the company tries to build enough hardware capability — what he calls "headroom" — to handle about seven to 10 years of software upgrades. There's a distinction between feature updates, which is a new additional functionality that you may get post-launch and post-purchase of the car, and then safety updates or security updates. Our commitment to our owners is safety and security updates will be supported by Rivian indefinitely. Your vehicle ...