Retail Sales Fall Unexpectedly in July

U.S. headline retail sales fell unexpectedly in July, down 0.6% to $763.6B in July, while core retail sales fell unexpectedly by 0.3%.

Headline retail sales fell unexpectedly in July, down 0.6% to $763.6 billion.

Core retail sales were down 0.3% in July, marking the second consecutive month of declines.

Control purchases fell 0.4% in July, down from last month and below expectations.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2026, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $763.6 billion, down 0.6 percent (±0.4 percent) from the previous month, but up 5.0 percent (±0.5 percent) from July 2025.

Total sales for the May 2026 through July 2026 period were up 6.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago.

The May 2026 to June 2026 percent change was unrevised from up 0.2 percent (±0.3 percent).

Monthly retail sales have been above the light purple and blue line since March 2021, signaling increased consumer spending that was most likely pent up as a result of the pandemic.

The year-over-year percent change provides another perspective on the historical trend.

Current retail sales are up 5.0% compared to one year ago.

Core sales were down for the second consecutive month in July, falling 0.3%. This was down from the 0.2% contraction in June and was lower than the +0.2% forecast.

Core sales are up 5.8% year-over-year.

Retail sales control purchases fell 0.4% in July unexpectedly. This marks a slowdown from June's 0.4% growth.

Current control purchases are up 4.5% compared to one year ago.

Retail sales will impact interest in the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) , Amplify Online Retail ETF (IBUY) , and ProShares Online Retail ETF (ONLN) .