BXMT: Down -35% This Year, What Is Next

Summary Blackstone Mortgage Trust faces continued pressure from CECL reserves, posting a net loss of $81M and underperforming CRE REIT peers. BXMT's reported book value of $19.30/share is not credible; market-implied value is closer to $12.50/share, reflecting skepticism about asset marks. The REIT's distributable EPS consistently lags its dividend, signaling an imminent dividend cut to bring yield below 10%-11%. We remain neutral/hold on BXMT, awaiting a clean balance sheet and stabilization in risk-free rates before considering a bottom. very good/iStock via Getty Images Thesis The last time we covered the Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. ( BXMT ) in the beginning of the year, we warned investors: We would love to play the range trade again for BXMT and buy This article was written by Binary Tree Analytics 5.86K Followers Follow With a banking trading background, Binary Tree Analytics ('BTA') aims to provide transparency and analytics in respect to capital markets instruments and trades. BTA focuses on CEFs, ETFs and Special Situations, and aims to deliver high annualized returns with a low volatility profile. We have been investing for 20 years after obtaining a Finance major at a top university. Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.