The Recession That Wasn't

Two things of note happened this past Wednesday. The first was yet another surge in bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury rate, at 5.48 percent, the highest it has been since 2004. Wednesday’s composite US PMI report came in scorching, with both the manufacturing and the services components well ahead of economists’ expectations. Bond yields, which had been mostly quiescent earlier in the week, took off following the release of the PMI report as investors factored “hotter than expected growth” into their evolving models for Fed action on rates.

AI going bust is plausibly the one thing that could send all that economic growth into sharp reverse.

Two things of note happened this past Wednesday. The first was yet another surge in bond yields, with the 30-year Treasury rate, at 5.48 percent, the highest it has been since 2004. Treasury yields all the way down to the