The Big Reset: How Low Could We Go? Know Your Odds

Summary The market only spends 5% of its time actually creating wealth. The rest of the time is spent backing and filling. The market is overvalued and corrections could be deep. I examine the odds of reaching various levels of the S&P 500. Yuriy Gluzhetsky/iStock via Getty Images News Flash: the market is overvalued. Here is one of the best charts I’ve seen that brings home the point: The market is overvalued by an average of 193%, based on the above four measures. That doesn’t mean it’s going to crash This article was written by Erik Conley 15.09K Followers Follow I spent 30 years in the institutional trenches as a trader, analyst, and portfolio manager, eventually running the equity trading desk at Northern Trust in Chicago. Those decades shaped my approach: stay disciplined, trust the data, and keep emotion out of the way. Since 2009, when I began publishing my stock selections, my portfolio has delivered solid long term results—compounding in the mid teens annually through 2025. Today I manage a 15-20 stock model portfolio where I select stocks that score highly for Quality, Growth, Momentum, Value, and Risk. I use a rules-based framework that helps me build high performing portfolios. My work focuses on systematic thinking, behavioral awareness, and evidence over opinion. For my market outlook and model portfolio updates, visit zeninvestor.org. . Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.